Vaata pühapäev, 14 september 1997 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1997 Sep 14 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 257 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 SEP 1997IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8083 (S27W85) APPEARED
TO BE DECAYING AS IT SLID TOWARD THE LIMB. THIS REGION PRODUCED A
C2.8/SF FLARE AT 14/0255Z. TWO UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURSTS COULD BE
ATTRIBUTED TO THIS REGION. REGION 8084 (N22W53) PRODUCED A C1/SF
FLARE AT 14/2016Z. THIS REGION HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND IS NOW AN ESO GROUP OF 12 SPOTS IN A BETA-GAMMA
CONFIGURATION. REGION 8085 (S26W25) PRODUCED A C2.7/1F FLARE AT
14/1115Z. THIS REGION ALSO HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY BUT IS STILL AN FKI
GROUP OF 16 SPOTS IN A BETA CONFIGUARATION. REGION 8086 (N28E38)
PRODUCED A C1.5/SF FLARE AT 14/1702Z. THIS REGION IS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED AS A CSO GROUP OF 5 SPOTS IN A BETA CONFIGURATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMB IS RELATIVELY QUIET.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. THE SPOTTED GROUPS REMAINING ON THE VISIBLE DISK HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE
PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT ABOUT 14/1000Z.. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ENERGETIC ELECTRONS REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 SEPkuni 17 SEP
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 SEP 103 Prognoositud 15 SEP-17 SEP 100/100/100 90 päeva keskmine 14 SEP 079
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 SEP kuni 17 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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