Vaata teisipäev, 8 aprill 1997 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1997 Apr 08 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 098 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 APR 1997IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8027 (S28E00)
REMAINED QUIET AND STABLE. THE SLOW DECAY OF THIS REGION HAS
APPARENTLY STABILIZED. NEW REGION 8028 (S07W50), AN AXX SPOT GROUP,
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8027 STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND
A DIMINSHED CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8028 IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ACTIVE AT THIS TIME.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING ACTIVITY BY THE END OF
DAY TWO AND BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY DAY THREE. HIGH LATITUDE
STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING DURING THIS PERIOD.
ACTIVITY WILL BE A RESULT OF THE APPARENT CME ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAY'S C6/3N FLARE. AN INDEPENDENT SOURCE OF SOLAR DATA
INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLARE. THIS DATA CORROLATES WELL WITH REPORTED
TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 APRkuni 11 APR
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 APR 076 Prognoositud 09 APR-11 APR 076/076/076 90 päeva keskmine 08 APR 074
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 APR 010/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 APR 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 APR-11 APR 010/010-015/020-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 APR kuni 11 APR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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