Vaata kolmapäev, 2 aprill 1997 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1997 Apr 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 092 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 APR 1997 :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8026 (S24W02) PRODUCED
TWO C-CLASS FLARES AND NUMEROUS B-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE REPORTING
PERIOD. AS MANY AS 14 NEW SPOTS HAVE FORMED SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH
THE REGION NOW DISPLAYING TWO DISTINCT PLAGE FIELDS (NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST) IN A 29 SPOT 'EAI' BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. THE
NORTHEAST PLAGE FIELD CONTAINS AN ACTIVE ARCH FILAMENT SYSTEM AND
DARK SURGE ON THE DISK. NEW REGION 8027 (S30E77), THE RETURN OF OLD
REGION 8021, A 3 SPOT 'CAO' BETA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS IT
ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW, WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS
FROM REGION 8026 FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING THE
INTERVAL 02/0000-0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE IN THE
MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ACTIVITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY ACTIVE, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING, ON DAYS TWO AND THREE IN
RESPONSE TO AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME DETECTED BY SOHO/EIT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE M1/1B FLARE FROM REGION 8026 AT 01/1400Z.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 APRkuni 05 APR
| Klass M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 APR 081 Prognoositud 03 APR-05 APR 081/082/083 90 päeva keskmine 02 APR 074
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 APR 011/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 APR 010/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 APR-05 APR 010/010-025/020-025/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 APR kuni 05 APR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 60% | 60% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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