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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Aug 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 239 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Aug 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
27/0240Z from Region 3088 (S24W72). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (28 Aug) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 27/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 27/0935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
27/1157Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 27 pfu at 27/1220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2178 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (29 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(28 Aug) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Aug a 30 Aug
| Clase M | 55% | 35% | 30% |
| Clase X | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Aug 128 Previsto 28 Aug-30 Aug 125/122/120 Media de 90 Días 27 Aug 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Aug 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Aug 011/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 014/018-020/028-009/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Aug a 30 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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