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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Apr 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 120 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Apr 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
30/1347Z from Region 2994 (N15, L=106) beyond the west limb. There are
currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (01 May) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on day two (02 May) and likely to be low on day three (03
May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 30/1621Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 30/0019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 30/0023Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 29/2145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1061 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 May). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (01
May, 02 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 May a 03 May
| Clase M | 35% | 15% | 01% |
| Clase X | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Apr 120 Previsto 01 May-03 May 110/105/105 Media de 90 Días 30 Apr 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Apr 010/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 015/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 012/015-012/015-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 May a 03 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 45% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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