Viendo archivo del jueves, 15 agosto 2019
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2019 Aug 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 227 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Aug 2019IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 510 km/s at 14/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
15/1014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5234 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Aug 067 Previsto 16 Aug-18 Aug 067/067/067 Media de 90 Días 15 Aug 068
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 007/008-005/005-006/006
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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