Viendo archivo del jueves, 16 agosto 2018
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2018 Aug 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Aug 2018IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 16/0128Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 16/1007Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
15/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 391 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Aug 068 Previsto 17 Aug-19 Aug 069/069/069 Media de 90 Días 16 Aug 071
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 012/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 010/010-005/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 10% | 10% |
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