Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 septiembre 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Sep 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 257 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Sep 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (15 Sep) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 677 km/s at 14/1915Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 14/1425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 14/1418Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 77 pfu at 14/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 957 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (15 Sep), unsettled
to active levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (15 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (16 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 35% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Sep 074 Previsto 15 Sep-17 Sep 074/074/074 Media de 90 Días 14 Sep 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 013/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 016/027 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 022/026-018/020-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 50% | 40% |
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