Viendo archivo del martes, 12 septiembre 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Sep 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 255 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Sep 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Sep,
14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 12/2050Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 12/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
12/1954Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 872 pfu at 11/2105Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 11/2115Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 7042 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (13 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (14 Sep) and active to minor storm levels
on day three (15 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day
one (13 Sep), are expected to cross threshold on day two (14 Sep) and
are likely to cross threshold on day three (15 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Sep a 15 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 95% | 80% | 60% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Sep 076 Previsto 13 Sep-15 Sep 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 12 Sep 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Sep 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Sep 010/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 024/036-025/032-021/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Sep a 15 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 65% | 65% |
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