Viendo archivo del miércoles, 6 septiembre 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Sep 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 249 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Sep 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X9 event observed at
06/1202Z from Region 2673 (S09W45). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08
Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 06/0259Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 06/0136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
06/1325Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 155 pfu at 05/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7224 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (07 Sep) and active
to severe storm levels on days two and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep). Protons
are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), have a chance of
crossing threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Sep a 09 Sep
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Protón | 85% | 25% | 15% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Sep 133 Previsto 07 Sep-09 Sep 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 06 Sep 080
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Sep 011/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Sep 019/037 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 032/045-035/052-031/045
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Sep a 09 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 55% | 60% |
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