Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 septiembre 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Sep 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 247 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Sep 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
04/2033Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06
Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 04/2007Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 04/2019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/1649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15826 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| Clase M | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Sep 183 Previsto 05 Sep-07 Sep 140/140/130 Media de 90 Días 04 Sep 079
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Sep 010/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Sep 010/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 009/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 10% |
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