Viendo archivo del jueves, 3 agosto 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Aug 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 215 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Aug 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 03/2031Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 03/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
03/2035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3705 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Aug a 06 Aug
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Aug 075 Previsto 04 Aug-06 Aug 077/077/077 Media de 90 Días 03 Aug 075
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Aug 008/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 017/025-018/025-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Aug a 06 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 80% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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