Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 julio 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Jul 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 195 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jul 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/0209Z from Region 2665 (S06W43). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul,
17 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 13/2148Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/1630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
14/0215Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13 pfu at 14/1055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (16 Jul) and active to major storm levels on day
three (17 Jul). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (15
Jul), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Jul) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jul a 17 Jul
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 75% | 50% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jul 094 Previsto 15 Jul-17 Jul 092/092/092 Media de 90 Días 14 Jul 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jul 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 014/015-019/035-028/045
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jul a 17 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 25% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 75% | 79% |
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