Viendo archivo del lunes, 27 marzo 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Mar 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 86 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Mar 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
27/1820Z from Region 2645 (S09E59). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (28 Mar, 29 Mar)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 27/2010Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 27/0752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 27/0827Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7934 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Mar), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (29 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (30 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Mar a 30 Mar
| Clase M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Mar 083 Previsto 28 Mar-30 Mar 084/083/082 Media de 90 Días 27 Mar 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Mar 003/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Mar 030/059 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 029/040-025/035-020/024
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Mar a 30 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 25% | 25% |
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