Viendo archivo del lunes, 2 enero 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Jan 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 2 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jan 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (03 Jan, 04
Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (05 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 01/2308Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/1258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 608 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jan) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Jan 073 Previsto 03 Jan-05 Jan 073/073/073 Media de 90 Días 02 Jan 080
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jan 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 011/014-017/024-022/028
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 65% | 65% |
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