Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 agosto 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Aug 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 223 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Aug 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Aug) and likely to be
low on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 10/1530Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/0517Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5975 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (13 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Aug a 13 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Aug 095 Previsto 11 Aug-13 Aug 095/095/090 Media de 90 Días 10 Aug 086
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Aug 015/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 012/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Aug a 13 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 15% |
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