Viendo archivo del sábado, 23 julio 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Jul 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 205 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jul 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
23/0516Z from Region 2567 (N05W80). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (24 Jul) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on day two (25 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on day three (26 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 22/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0610Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (25 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Jul).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jul a 26 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 30% | 01% |
| Clase X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Jul 086 Previsto 24 Jul-26 Jul 085/080/075 Media de 90 Días 23 Jul 089
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jul 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Jul 009/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 007/008-006/005-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jul a 26 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 45% |
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