Viendo archivo del miércoles, 13 abril 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Apr 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Apr 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Apr,
15 Apr, 16 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 13/0614Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 13/0014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 13/0007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4307 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Apr a 16 Apr
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Apr 108 Previsto 14 Apr-16 Apr 105/105/105 Media de 90 Días 13 Apr 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Apr 012/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 024/029 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 018/030-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Apr a 16 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 45% | 25% |
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