Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 febrero 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Feb 14 2225 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 45 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Feb 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1926Z from Region 2497 (N12W48). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb,
17 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
456 km/s at 14/0422Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/0818Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0641Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (15 Feb, 17
Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (16 Feb). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Feb,
16 Feb, 17 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Feb 108 Previsto 15 Feb-17 Feb 109/109/105 Media de 90 Días 14 Feb 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Feb 011/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 019/027-011/012-014/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 30% | 50% |
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