Viendo archivo del jueves, 31 diciembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Dec 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 365 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Dec 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
30/2245Z from Region 2473 (S21W60). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (03 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 575 km/s at 31/0537Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 31/1909Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 31/1915Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 883
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Jan) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jan a 03 Jan
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Dec 096 Previsto 01 Jan-03 Jan 095/100/100 Media de 90 Días 31 Dec 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Dec 026/041 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 021/030-015/018-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jan a 03 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 45% | 45% |
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
lunes, 22 abril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
sábado, 23 marzo 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
miércoles, 20 marzo 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Últimos mensajes del foro
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/05/03 | X1.6 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/05/03 | M4.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/05/02 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| abril 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 149.4 +51.8 |