Viendo archivo del martes, 22 diciembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Dec 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 356 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Dec 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0334Z from Region 2473 (S23E62). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
505 km/s at 22/0513Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 21/2129Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 22/0908Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1727 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (24 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Dec a 25 Dec
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Dec 130 Previsto 23 Dec-25 Dec 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 22 Dec 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Dec 022/037 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Dec 009/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 006/006-008/010-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Dec a 25 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 30% | 25% |
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