Viendo archivo del sábado, 31 octubre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Oct 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 304 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Oct 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1752Z from Region 2443 (N07E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 31/0905Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2116Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/2048Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (02 Nov) and active to major storm levels
on day three (03 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Nov a 03 Nov
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Oct 119 Previsto 01 Nov-03 Nov 120/120/120 Media de 90 Días 31 Oct 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Oct 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 008/008-036/065-033/050
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Nov a 03 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 40% | 30% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 90% | 85% |
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