Viendo archivo del viernes, 2 octubre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Oct 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
02/0013Z from Region 2422 (S20W83). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (03 Oct) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (04 Oct)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (05 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
407 km/s at 02/1633Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/2302Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/2136Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (03 Oct, 04
Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (05 Oct). Protons have
a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04
Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| Clase M | 70% | 65% | 50% |
| Clase X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Oct 107 Previsto 03 Oct-05 Oct 095/085/090 Media de 90 Días 02 Oct 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 008/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 016/024-025/033-018/022
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 65% | 50% |
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