Viendo archivo del lunes, 31 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 243 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
31/0522Z from Region 2403 (S15W99). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 444 km/s at
30/2112Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2323Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/2208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2912 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Aug 091 Previsto 01 Sep-03 Sep 085/080/080 Media de 90 Días 31 Aug 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 014/020-017/022-011/014
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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