Viendo archivo del sábado, 29 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 241 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
28/2347Z from Region 2403 (S15W82). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (30 Aug) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (31 Aug)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (01 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 512 km/s at 29/0712Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/2119Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/2119Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 684
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Aug, 31 Aug)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Sep). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30
Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Aug a 01 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 40% | 05% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Aug 100 Previsto 30 Aug-01 Sep 100/095/095 Media de 90 Días 29 Aug 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Aug 028/045 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Aug 013/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 009/010-009/008-014/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Aug a 01 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 20% | 70% |
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