Viendo archivo del martes, 14 julio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jul 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 195 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jul 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1210Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (17 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
513 km/s at 14/0020Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2045Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0052Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1424 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17
Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jul a 17 Jul
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jul 105 Previsto 15 Jul-17 Jul 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 14 Jul 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jul 022/035 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jul 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jul a 17 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 20% |
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