Viendo archivo del martes, 23 junio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jun 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 174 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jun 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1219Z from Region 2371 (N12W28). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 1054 km/s at 23/1051Z. Total IMF reached 38 nT at 22/2102Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -25 nT at 23/0135Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 529
pfu at 22/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
were contaminated by proton flux and therefore unreliable.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Jun), minor
storm to severe storm levels on day two (25 Jun) and unsettled to minor
storm levels on day three (26 Jun). Protons are expected to cross
threshold on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and are expected to cross
threshold on day three (26 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jun a 26 Jun
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 90% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Jun 116 Previsto 24 Jun-26 Jun 115/110/110 Media de 90 Días 23 Jun 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jun 057/074 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Jun 044/083 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 028/040-048/080-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jun a 26 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 40% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 79% | 85% | 65% |
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