Viendo archivo del lunes, 11 mayo 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 May 11 2355 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 131 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 May 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/0409Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May,
14 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
400 km/s at 11/1108Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/2232Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/2313Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (12 May, 13
May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 May a 14 May
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 May 163 Previsto 12 May-14 May 165/160/155 Media de 90 Días 11 May 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 May 012/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 May 012/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 017/025-019/025-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 May a 14 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 60% | 45% |
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