Viendo archivo del domingo, 29 marzo 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Mar 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 88 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Mar 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
29/1530Z from Region 2303 (N18W92). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar,
01 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 28/2234Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 29/0027Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/0913Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Mar a 01 Apr
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Mar 145 Previsto 30 Mar-01 Apr 140/140/150 Media de 90 Días 29 Mar 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Mar 009/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Mar 016/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 021/025-019/025-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Mar a 01 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 70% | 35% |
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