Viendo archivo del miércoles, 11 febrero 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Feb 11 2215 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 42 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Feb 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/0521Z from Region 2282 (N11E31). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (14 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
433 km/s at 10/2214Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/1547Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1059Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 460 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb,
13 Feb, 14 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Feb 131 Previsto 12 Feb-14 Feb 125/122/126 Media de 90 Días 11 Feb 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 006/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 20% |
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