Viendo archivo del viernes, 2 enero 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jan 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 2 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jan 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/1948Z from Region 2256 (S08W48). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan,
05 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
476 km/s at 02/0923Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/1510Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/1725Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2019 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (03 Jan, 05
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (04 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Jan 146 Previsto 03 Jan-05 Jan 145/145/150 Media de 90 Días 02 Jan 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jan 007/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 012/015-011/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 40% | 40% |
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