Viendo archivo del lunes, 24 noviembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Nov 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 328 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Nov 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/0137Z from Region 2216 (S14E13). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
460 km/s at 24/0529Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/2144Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1147Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 887 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27
Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Nov a 27 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Nov 170 Previsto 25 Nov-27 Nov 155/145/145 Media de 90 Días 24 Nov 148
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Nov 009/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Nov 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Nov a 27 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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