Viendo archivo del sábado, 22 noviembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Nov 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 326 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Nov 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
22/0101Z from Region 2209 (S15W43). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24
Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
420 km/s at 22/1148Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/2033Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 22/1341Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 535 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Nov, 24 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (25 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Nov a 25 Nov
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Nov 167 Previsto 23 Nov-25 Nov 170/170/150 Media de 90 Días 22 Nov 148
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Nov 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 009/010-007/008-005/006
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Nov a 25 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 10% |
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