Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 agosto 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Aug 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Aug 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0929Z from Region 2144 (S17W47). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 358 km/s at
16/0655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Aug, 18 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (19 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Aug 112 Previsto 17 Aug-19 Aug 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 16 Aug 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 005/005-005/005-009/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 01% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 30% |
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