Viendo archivo del lunes, 7 julio 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Jul 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 188 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Jul 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/0802Z from Region 2109 (S10E09). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
07/1659Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/1946Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1740Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jul), unsettled levels
on day two (09 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jul). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08
Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Jul a 10 Jul
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Jul 198 Previsto 08 Jul-10 Jul 200/200/190 Media de 90 Días 07 Jul 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Jul 006/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 009/010-011/012-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Jul a 10 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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