Viendo archivo del viernes, 18 abril 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Apr 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 108 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Apr 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2036 (S16W41,
Dhc/beta-gamma) produced an M7 flare at 18/1303 UTC, which was the
largest flare of the period. It was accompanied by a Tenflare (1000
sfu), a Castelli-U signature, as well as Type II (851 km/s) and Type IV
radio emissions. An asymmetric halo CME was subsequently observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 18/1325 UTC. Analysis suggested the
ejecta was moving at approximately 1000 km/s and Earth-directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at
18/1845Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/0207Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/0243Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38 pfu at 18/1955Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Apr) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr) with a chance for
major storm levels on day two (20 Apr). Protons are expected to remain
above the 10 pfu threshold on day one (19 Apr), are expected to cross
threshold on day two (20 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (21 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Apr a 21 Apr
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 99% | 75% | 50% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Apr 172 Previsto 19 Apr-21 Apr 175/175/175 Media de 90 Días 18 Apr 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Apr 011/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 009/012-018/025-017/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Apr a 21 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 75% | 60% |
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