Viendo archivo del jueves, 17 abril 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Apr 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 107 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Apr 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
17/1154Z. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
448 km/s at 17/1854Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/0528Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/1322Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (19 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(20 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Apr a 20 Apr
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Apr 179 Previsto 18 Apr-20 Apr 180/180/180 Media de 90 Días 17 Apr 155
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Apr 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 008/008-009/012-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Apr a 20 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 55% | 60% |
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