Viendo archivo del jueves, 27 febrero 2014

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 58 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Feb 2014

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 27/1230Z from Region 1991 (S25E52). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 519 km/s at 27/1936Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 27/1752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 27/1810Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 27/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (02 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (28 Feb), are likely to cross threshold on day two (01 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (02 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Feb a 02 Mar
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X30%30%30%
Protón99%70%50%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Feb 176
  Previsto   28 Feb-02 Mar 175/170/170
  Media de 90 Días        27 Feb 158

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Feb  003/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Feb  011/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  019/025-009/008-006/005

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Feb a 02 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%20%05%
Tormenta Menor25%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%20%15%
Tormenta Menor25%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa55%25%05%

All times in UTC

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