Viendo archivo del miércoles, 5 febrero 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Feb 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 36 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Feb 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1620Z from Region 1967 (S12W38). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07
Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at
05/2054Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/0541Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/2048Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (08 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Feb a 08 Feb
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Feb 194 Previsto 06 Feb-08 Feb 198/195/190 Media de 90 Días 05 Feb 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Feb 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Feb 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 006/005-006/005-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Feb a 08 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 25% |
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