Viendo archivo del miércoles, 25 diciembre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Dec 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 359 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Dec 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
25/0639Z from old Region 1928 (S16, L=008). There are currently 5
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec,
28 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
338 km/s at 25/0350Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 25/0524Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/1121Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (27 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (28 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Dec a 28 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Dec 123 Previsto 26 Dec-28 Dec 125/125/125 Media de 90 Días 25 Dec 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Dec 002/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Dec 009/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 009/010-009/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Dec a 28 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 25% | 10% |
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