Viendo archivo del martes, 1 octubre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Oct 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 274 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Oct 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at
01/1929Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/0803Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/1321Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu at 30/2115Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 659 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Oct), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (03 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (04 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(02 Oct), are expected to cross threshold on day two (03 Oct) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (04 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 99% | 75% | 40% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Oct 107 Previsto 02 Oct-04 Oct 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 01 Oct 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 003/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 004/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 014/020-030/040-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 65% | 25% |
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