Viendo archivo del domingo, 18 agosto 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Aug 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 230 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Aug 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/1131Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug,
21 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 650 km/s at
17/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4650 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (20 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (21 Aug).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Aug 126 Previsto 19 Aug-21 Aug 130/125/120 Media de 90 Días 18 Aug 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Aug 009/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 006/005-010/018-018/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 30% | 55% |
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