Viendo archivo del martes, 13 agosto 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Aug 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 225 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Aug 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
13/1850Z from Region 1809 (N14W0*). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug,
16 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 13/1935Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/1803Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/1518Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 661 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Aug a 16 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Aug 122 Previsto 14 Aug-16 Aug 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 13 Aug 114
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 015/018-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Aug a 16 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 50% | 25% |
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