Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 julio 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Jul 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 192 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jul 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1757Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (12 Jul, 13 Jul) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(14 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 494 km/s at 11/1322Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1256Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3338
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul) due to an
expected CME passage.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jul a 14 Jul
| Clase M | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Jul 113 Previsto 12 Jul-14 Jul 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 11 Jul 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jul 020/030 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Jul 013/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 009/008-010/015-018/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jul a 14 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 40% | 65% |
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