Viendo archivo del martes, 25 junio 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Jun 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 176 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Jun 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Jun) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (27 Jun) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (28 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
590 km/s at 25/0812Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2130Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/2147Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
24/2300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17149 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and unsettled to
active levels with a chance for minor storm levels on days two and three
(27 Jun, 28 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Jun a 28 Jun
| Clase M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Jun 109 Previsto 26 Jun-28 Jun 105/100/095 Media de 90 Días 25 Jun 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Jun 014/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 006/008-011/016-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Jun a 28 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 50% | 40% |
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