Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 mayo 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 May 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 137 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 May 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
17/0857Z from Region 1748 (N12E23). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels with a chance for X-class flares on days one,
two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
431 km/s at 17/0120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1927Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2126Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 41 pfu at
17/1720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 May), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (19 May) and quiet to active levels on day three
(20 May). Protons are expected to continue above threshold levels on
days 1-3 (18-20 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 May a 20 May
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Protón | 99% | 95% | 90% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 May 136 Previsto 18 May-20 May 140/140/135 Media de 90 Días 17 May 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 May 012/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 May 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 008/008-017/034-012/016
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 May a 20 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 75% | 40% |
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