Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 enero 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Jan 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 20 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jan 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/1432Z from Region 1654 (N08W84). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (21 Jan). Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance
for C-class flares on days two and three (22 - 23 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 19/2230Z. Total IMF reached 8.7 nT at 20/0624Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8.2 nT at 20/0546Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 250 pfu.
IIB. The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for
days one and two (21 - 22 Jan). The geomagnetic field is expected to
increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Jan) in response
to a negative polarity CH/HSS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| Clase M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jan 107 Previsto 21 Jan-23 Jan 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 20 Jan 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 009/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 20% |
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