Viendo archivo del viernes, 28 diciembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Dec 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 363 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Dec 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. A 10 degree filament, centered near N08E20, was observed erupting
in H-alpha imagery beginning at 27/1939 UTC. STEREO-A COR2 imagery
showed an associated faint CME beginning at 27/2309 UTC with the
majority of the ejecta directed north of the ecliptic. We are
currently waiting on further imagery to determine possible
geoeffectiveness. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Dec,
30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 314 km/s at
28/0506Z. Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 28/1254Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.3 nT at 28/1804Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Dec a 31 Dec
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Dec 106 Previsto 29 Dec-31 Dec 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 28 Dec 118
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Dec 000/000 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Dec 001/002 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Dec a 31 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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