Viendo archivo del jueves, 6 diciembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Dec 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 341 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Dec 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. A large filament eruption was observed in the southwest quadrant
from 06/0030Z to 06/0400Z. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
and C3 imagery. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, all of which are showing signs of decay.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 361 km/s at
06/0024Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (07 Dec and 08
Dec) due to possible CME effects. A return to quiet levels is expected
on day three(09 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Dec a 09 Dec
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Dec 097 Previsto 07 Dec-09 Dec 095/100/100 Media de 90 Días 06 Dec 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Dec 002/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 006/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Dec a 09 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 05% |
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