Viendo archivo del viernes, 9 noviembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 09 2310 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::: SDF Número 314 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Nov 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0151Z which was associated with a non-earth directed CME that
originated from a region behind the east limb. There was a second CME
observed begining at 09/1524Z which was associated with a filament
eruption in the southeast quadrant of the disk. Analysis of the second
CME is still ongoing. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on
the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and
three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at
08/2216Z. There was a weak enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons at
geosynchronous orbit in response to the full halo, backsided CME that
occurred yesterday. The peak flux level was 2 pfu at 09/0420Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Nov a 12 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Nov 115 Previsto 10 Nov-12 Nov 120/125/130 Media de 90 Días 09 Nov 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 007/007-007/007-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Nov a 12 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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